Bank Lending & Credit Data: Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey & More

Why Bank Credit Data Matters

Bank lending is the transmission mechanism of monetary policy:

• Fed changes rates

• Banks adjust lending standards and rates

• Credit flows to economy

• Economic activity responds

Tracking credit = tracking policy effectiveness.

Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS)

What Is SLOOS?

IQ Score: 95

Quarterly Fed survey of ~80 banks on:

• Lending standards (tighter or looser)
• Loan demand (stronger or weaker)
• Credit terms (spreads, covenants)

Release: February, May, August, November

Key Questions Covered

Commercial & Industrial (C&I) Loans:

• Standards for large/middle market firms
• Standards for small firms
• Demand changes

Commercial Real Estate (CRE):

• Construction loans
• Multifamily
• Nonfarm nonresidential

Residential Mortgages:

• GSE-eligible
• Non-QM
• Subprime

Consumer Credit:

• Credit cards
• Auto loans
• Other consumer

Interpreting SLOOS

Net percentage tightening:

• Positive = More banks tightening than easing
• Negative = More banks easing than tightening

Historical thresholds:

SLOOS and Recessions

Tightening standards precede every recession.

Lead time: 2-4 quarters typically.

Bank Loan Growth Data

H.8 Release (Weekly)

IQ Score: 96

Federal Reserve release on bank credit.

Key series:

• Total loans and leases
• C&I loans
• Real estate loans
• Consumer loans

FRED examples:

• TOTLL: Total loans (all banks)
• BUSLOANS: C&I loans
• REALLN: Real estate loans
• CONSUMER: Consumer loans

Loan Growth Interpretation

Year-over-year changes:

Credit vs Money

Credit growth (loans) ≠ Money growth (deposits)

Both matter, but credit is more cyclical.

Consumer Credit Data

G.19 Consumer Credit Release

IQ Score: 95

Monthly data on consumer borrowing.

Categories:

• Revolving (credit cards)
• Non-revolving (auto, student, other)

FRED Series:

• TOTALSL: Total consumer credit
• REVOLSL: Revolving credit
• NONREVSL: Non-revolving credit

Consumer Credit Indicators

Credit card data:

• Outstanding balances
• Delinquency rates
• Charge-off rates

Auto loans:

• New originations
• Subprime share
• Delinquencies

Credit Quality Metrics

Delinquency Rates (FRED):

• DRCCLACBS: Credit card 30+ days
• DRALACBS: Auto loans 30+ days

Charge-off Rates:

• CORCCACBS: Credit card charge-offs
• CORALACBS: Auto charge-offs

Commercial Credit Data

C&I Lending

FRED Series: BUSLOANS | IQ Score: 95

Business lending for working capital, equipment, etc.

Why it matters:

• Investment proxy
• Business confidence
• Credit availability

Commercial Real Estate

CRE lending under pressure post-COVID (office).

Key metrics:

• CRE loan growth
• Delinquency rates
• Price indices (Green Street)

Small Business Lending

Sources:

• SBA loan data
• NFIB credit availability
• PayNet Small Business Index

Credit Spreads and Lending

How Spreads Affect Lending

Wide spreads = higher borrowing costs = less borrowing

Bank loan spreads:

• Prime rate over Fed funds
• C&I loan spreads over reference rates

Market vs Bank Credit

When bank credit tight, market credit matters:

• Corporate bond issuance
• Leveraged loans
• Private credit

Bank Balance Sheet Data

Call Report Data

Quarterly bank financial statements.

Contains:

• Loan portfolios
• Securities holdings
• Deposits
• Capital ratios

Source: FFIEC (free, but complex)

Aggregate Bank Data

FRED has aggregates:

• Total bank assets
• Loan loss provisions
• Net interest margin

Credit Cycle Framework

Early Cycle

• Banks easing standards
• Loan demand rising
• Spreads tightening
• Credit growing

Mid Cycle

• Standards stable
• Demand steady
• Healthy growth
• Some excess building

Late Cycle

• Standards starting to tighten
• Demand slowing
• Spreads widening
• Credit growth slowing

Recession

• Sharp tightening
• Demand collapse
• Spreads blow out
• Credit contraction

Building a Credit Dashboard

Quarterly (SLOOS-driven)

• SLOOS net tightening (C&I, CRE, consumer)

• Loan demand changes

• Credit terms

Monthly

• Consumer credit (G.19)

• Loan growth (H.8)

• Delinquency rates

Weekly

• Bank credit (H.8)

• Commercial paper

• Credit spreads

Advanced Credit Analysis

Credit Impulse

Change in new credit as % of GDP.

Formula: (New Credit Year N - New Credit Year N-1) / GDP

Leads GDP growth by 3-4 quarters.

Credit-to-GDP Gap

BIS measure of credit excess.

Above trend = vulnerability

Used for countercyclical capital buffers.

Non-Bank Credit

Growing importance:

• Private credit funds
• Direct lending
• Shadow banking

Pro Tips

• SLOOS is gold: Read the full survey, not just headlines

• Standards lead volumes: Tightening precedes loan decline

• C&I vs CRE differ: Different cycles and risks

• Consumer credit lags: Less leading than business credit

• Watch delinquencies: Early warning of stress

• Non-bank credit matters: Don't just watch banks

Explore bank credit data →