Commodity Price Data: Oil, Gold, Agriculture & Industrial Metals

Why Commodity Data Matters

Commodity prices are essential for:

• Inflation analysis (especially CPI components)
• Economic growth signals
• Sector and equity analysis
• Portfolio diversification
• Geopolitical risk assessment

Understanding Commodity Prices

Spot vs Futures

Spot Price: Current price for immediate delivery

Futures Price: Price for future delivery

The relationship:

• Contango: Futures > Spot (storage costs, financing)
• Backwardation: Futures < Spot (immediate demand, scarcity)

Why it matters:

• ETFs roll futures, creating return differences
• Curve shape signals supply/demand dynamics
• Backwardation often bullish

Benchmark vs Assessment

Exchange-Traded Benchmarks:

• Transparent, tick-by-tick
• Examples: WTI crude (NYMEX), Gold (COMEX)

Price Assessments:

• Published by price reporting agencies
• Based on market transactions and surveys
• Examples: Brent crude (Platts), Iron ore

Energy Data

Crude Oil

FRED Series:

• DCOILWTICO (WTI daily)
• DCOILBRENTEU (Brent daily)

IQ Score: 97

Key data sources:

• EIA (official US data)
• IEA (OECD agency)
• OPEC (producer org)

Natural Gas

Watch for: Regional price disconnects, LNG trade flows

Refined Products

• Gasoline: RBOB (NYMEX)
• Diesel/Heating Oil: HO (NYMEX)
• Crack spreads = refining margins

Precious Metals

Gold

FRED Series: GOLDAMGBD228NLBM (London AM fix) | IQ Score: 96

Key drivers:

• Real interest rates (inverse relationship)
• Dollar strength
• Safe-haven demand
• Central bank buying

Data sources:

• LBMA (London fix)
• COMEX futures
• World Gold Council

Silver

FRED Series: SLVPRUSD

More volatile than gold, industrial demand component.

Platinum & Palladium

Automotive (catalysts) and industrial demand driven.

Industrial Metals

Copper

"Dr. Copper"—the metal with a PhD in economics.

Why it matters:

• Used in construction, electronics, infrastructure
• China = 50%+ of demand
• Leading indicator for global growth

FRED Series: PCOPPUSDM

Exchanges: LME (physical), COMEX (futures)

Aluminum

Key for: Transportation, packaging, construction

Iron Ore

Significance: Steel production, China demand proxy

Price sources:

• Platts IODEX (benchmark)
• SGX futures
• DCE (Chinese exchange)

Lithium & Battery Metals

Growing importance for EV analysis:

• Lithium carbonate/hydroxide
• Cobalt
• Nickel (battery grade)

Agricultural Commodities

Grains

FRED Series:

• PMAIZMTUSDM (Corn)
• PWHEAMTUSDM (Wheat)

Softs

• Sugar (ICE)
• Coffee (ICE) - Arabica vs Robusta
• Cocoa (ICE)
• Cotton (ICE)

Livestock

• Live Cattle (CME)
• Lean Hogs (CME)
• Feeder Cattle (CME)

Commodity Indices

Major Benchmarks

For Specific Sectors

• Energy: S&P GSCI Energy
• Metals: LME Index
• Agriculture: S&P GSCI Ag

Data Providers

Free Sources

FRED:

• Daily commodities
• Limited history for some
• IQ Score: 95-97

World Bank Pink Sheet:

• Monthly prices
• Long history
• 60+ commodities
• IQ Score: 94

IMF Primary Commodity Prices:

• Monthly data
• Good for research
• IQ Score: 93

Premium Sources

Bloomberg:

• Tick data, full history
• Industry standard
• High cost

Refinitiv (formerly Reuters):

• Extensive coverage
• Price assessments
• Historical data

Platts (S&P Global):

• Price assessments
• Physical market focus
• Energy and metals

Argus Media:

• Petroleum focus
• Regional prices
• Premium data

Building a Commodities Dashboard

Essential Metrics

Energy:

• WTI and Brent crude (levels)

• WTI-Brent spread (logistics/arbitrage)

• Gasoline crack spread (refining)

• Natural gas (Henry Hub)

Metals:

• Gold (safe haven)

• Copper (growth proxy)

• Gold/copper ratio (risk sentiment)

Agriculture:

• Corn, wheat, soybeans (food prices)

• CRB Food Index (aggregate)

Ratio Analysis

Seasonal Patterns

Commodities have strong seasonality:

• Grains: Planting/harvest cycles
• Natural gas: Winter heating demand
• Gasoline: Summer driving season

Pro Tips

• Watch China demand: 50%+ of most industrial commodities

• Inventories matter: EIA, LME warehouse, exchange data

• Curve shape signals: Backwardation vs contango

• Dollar relationship: Most commodities inverse to USD

• Weather is critical: Agriculture and natural gas

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