Global Trade Data: Exports, Imports, Trade Balances & Tariff Analysis

Why Trade Data Matters

International trade data is essential for:

• GDP component analysis
• Currency forecasting
• Supply chain monitoring
• Geopolitical risk assessment
• Company/sector analysis

Understanding Trade Statistics

Key Concepts

Exports: Goods and services sold abroad

Imports: Goods and services bought from abroad

Trade Balance: Exports - Imports

Trade Deficit: Imports > Exports (US typical)

Trade Surplus: Exports > Imports (China, Germany)

Goods vs Services

• Goods: Physical merchandise (Census/Customs)
• Services: Travel, IP, financial services (BEA)
• Services often overlooked but growing

US Trade Data

Census Bureau Trade Data

IQ Score: 96

The primary source for US goods trade.

Release: Monthly (6 weeks lag)

Content:

• Exports and imports by country
• Product-level detail (HS codes)
• Advanced release (goods only)

FRED Series:

• BOPGEXP: Goods exports
• BOPGIMP: Goods imports
• BOPGTB: Goods trade balance

BEA International Transactions

IQ Score: 95

Broader coverage including services.

Components:

• Goods trade
• Services trade
• Primary income (investment returns)
• Secondary income (transfers)

FRED Series:

• NETEXP: Net exports (trade balance)
• EXPGS: Exports of goods & services
• IMPGS: Imports of goods & services

Country-Level Trade

Top US trading partners and key series:

Global Trade Data

UN Comtrade

IQ Score: 93

Most comprehensive global database.

• Bilateral trade flows
• HS product codes
• 200+ countries
• Free access (registration required)

WTO Trade Data

IQ Score: 94

World Trade Organization statistics.

• Trade by sector
• Trade policy data
• Dispute data

IMF Direction of Trade (DOTS)

IQ Score: 94

Standardized bilateral trade statistics.

• Country pairs
• Monthly and quarterly
• Good for cross-checking

World Bank WITS

IQ Score: 92

World Integrated Trade Solution.

• Tariff data
• Trade indicators
• Development focus

Product-Level Analysis

HS Classification

Harmonized System—global product coding:

• 2-digit: Chapter (e.g., 84 = machinery)
• 4-digit: Heading (e.g., 8471 = computers)
• 6-digit: Subheading (standardized globally)
• 8-10 digit: Country-specific detail

Key Product Categories

Semiconductor Trade

Critical for tech supply chains:

• HS 8542: Integrated circuits
• By country of origin
• Taiwan, Korea, China exposure

Tariff and Trade Policy Data

USITC Tariff Database

US International Trade Commission.

• Applied tariff rates
• HS code search
• Free trade agreement rates

WTO Tariff Data

Most-favored-nation (MFN) rates globally.

Section 301 Tariffs (US-China)

Track extra tariffs on Chinese goods:

• Multiple lists (1, 2, 3, 4A)
• Rate changes over time
• Exclusion data

Trade Indicators

Trade-to-GDP Ratio

(Exports + Imports) / GDP

Shows trade openness:

• Small open economies: 100%+
• US: ~25%
• China: ~35%

Terms of Trade

Export prices / Import prices

Improving ToT = more imports for same exports.

Critical for commodity exporters.

Export Concentration

How diversified are a country's exports?

• Product concentration
• Market concentration

Real-Time Trade Indicators

Shipping Data

Baltic Dry Index (BDI):

• Dry bulk shipping rates
• FRED Series: BDIY
• Leading indicator for trade volumes
• IQ Score: 93

Container Rates:

• Shanghai Containerized Freight Index
• Drewry Container Index
• Freightos Baltic Index

Port Data

• Los Angeles/Long Beach volumes
• Rotterdam throughput
• Singapore container traffic

AIS (Ship Tracking)

Satellite tracking of vessels.

Alternative data providers offer:

• Port congestion
• Trade flow estimates
• Real-time monitoring

Building a Trade Dashboard

Monthly Tracking

• US trade balance (goods & services)

• China bilateral trade (key relationship)

• Container rates (shipping costs)

• BDI (dry bulk demand)

Quarterly Analysis

• Trade breakdown by partner
• Product mix changes
• Tariff impact assessment
• Services trade trends

Country Trade Profiles

For each major partner track:

• Trade balance trend
• Top products traded
• Tariff/policy changes
• Currency impact

Trade and Macro Linkages

GDP Impact

Net exports = GDP component

• Trade deficit = GDP drag
• Deficit widening = strong consumption

Currency Relationships

• Trade surplus → currency appreciation
• But intervention can prevent this

Inflation Pass-Through

Import prices affect domestic inflation:

• Exchange rate changes
• Tariffs
• Commodity prices

Pro Tips

• Watch goods advance: Earlier than full release

• Petroleum distorts: Strip out oil for underlying trends

• China data cross-check: Compare with partner country data

• Container rates lead: Physical trade follows shipping

• Services often missed: Growing faster than goods

• Tariffs take time: Trade diversion happens slowly

Explore global trade data →