Jobs Report Data: Nonfarm Payrolls, ADP & Employment Indicators

The Monthly Jobs Report

Released the first Friday of each month, the BLS Employment Situation report is the most market-moving economic release.

Key Components

Nonfarm Payrolls

IQ Score: 98 | Monthly | 1939-present

The headline number everyone watches.

Series: PAYEMS (All Employees: Total Nonfarm)

What It Measures:

• Net change in jobs (hires minus separations)
• Excludes farm workers, self-employed, unpaid family workers
• Covers ~80% of workers who produce GDP

Unemployment Rate

IQ Score: 97 | Monthly | 1948-present

Series: UNRATE

Comes from a different survey (household vs establishment).

Average Hourly Earnings

IQ Score: 96 | Monthly | 1964-present

Series: CES0500000003 (All Private)

Key for inflation analysis—Fed watches wage growth closely.

Average Weekly Hours

IQ Score: 95 | Monthly

Series: AWHAETP

Hours often change before headcount—leading indicator of labor demand.

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The Two Surveys

Establishment Survey (Payroll)

• 670,000+ worksites surveyed
• Counts jobs (not people)
• More reliable for job growth

Household Survey (Unemployment)

• 60,000 households surveyed
• Counts people (not jobs)
• Captures self-employed, gig workers
• Source of unemployment rate

They often tell different stories—both matter.

High-Frequency Labor Data

Weekly Jobless Claims

IQ Score: 97 | Weekly | 1967-present

Series: ICSA (Initial Claims), CCSA (Continuing Claims)

Most timely labor market data:

• Released every Thursday
• Covers previous week
• Excellent recession indicator

ADP Employment Report

IQ Score: 89 | Monthly

Private payroll data released 2 days before BLS.

Caveats:

• Correlation with BLS varies
• Different methodology
• Use as directional guide, not substitute

JOLTS (Job Openings)

IQ Score: 94 | Monthly | 2000-present

Key Series:

• JTSJOL: Job Openings
• JTSQUR: Quits Rate
• JTSHIR: Hires

Quits rate = worker confidence indicator. High quits = strong labor market.

Sector Breakdown

Cyclical Sectors

• Manufacturing
• Construction
• Retail
• Leisure & Hospitality

First to decline in recession, first to recover.

Defensive Sectors

• Healthcare
• Government
• Education

More stable through business cycle.

Leading Sectors

• Temporary help services
• Construction
• Manufacturing overtime

Watch these for early signals of turning points.

Labor Market Dashboard

Benchmark Revisions

What Are They?

Each February, BLS revises the prior year's data using unemployment insurance records (more complete than survey).

Why They Matter

• Can be large (+/- 500K jobs for the year)
• Often change the narrative
• 2023 example: Initial count revised down significantly

Pro Tips

• Focus on 3-month average: Single months noisy

• Watch revisions: Prior months often revised significantly

• Payrolls vs unemployment: They can diverge—both signals matter

• Sector detail: Where jobs are created matters

• Hours before heads: Hours often lead hiring decisions

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