Retail Sales Data: Census Bureau MARTS & Consumer Spending

Why Retail Sales Matter

Retail sales represent about 70% of US GDP through consumer spending. Monthly retail sales data is one of the most market-moving economic releases.

Census Bureau Retail Sales

Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MARTS)

IQ Score: 97 | Monthly | 1992-present

The primary source for US retail data.

Key Series:

• RSXFS: Retail Sales: Total (Ex Food Services)
• RSAFS: Retail and Food Services Sales, Total
• RRSFS: Real Retail and Food Services Sales

Release Schedule

• Advance Estimate: ~2 weeks after month end
• Preliminary Revision: ~6 weeks after
• Final Revision: With next release

Retail Categories

Browse retail sales data →

Control Group Sales

What It Is

Retail sales excluding:

• Auto dealers
• Gas stations
• Building materials
• Food services

Why It Matters

The "Control Group" feeds directly into GDP calculations. It's less volatile than headline retail sales and better reflects underlying consumer trends.

Series: Calculated from components or use RRSFS for real (inflation-adjusted) version.

Seasonal Adjustments

Retail sales are highly seasonal:

• December: Holiday shopping surge
• January: Post-holiday slump
• March/April: Tax refund spending
• August: Back-to-school

Always use seasonally adjusted data for trend analysis. Use not seasonally adjusted for understanding actual sales volumes.

E-Commerce Data

Census E-Commerce Sales

IQ Score: 94 | Quarterly | 1999-present

Series: ECOMSA (E-Commerce Retail Sales as % of Total)

Currently ~16% of total retail, up from 6% in 2013.

Related Consumer Indicators

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

From BEA, broader than retail sales (includes services).

• Series: PCE, PCEC

Consumer Confidence

Leading indicator of spending:

• Conference Board: CSCICP03USM665S
• U Michigan: UMCSENT

Credit Card Data

Private sources like Visa, Mastercard offer higher-frequency spending data (not on FRED).

Interpreting Retail Sales

Strong Report

• Nominal sales up >0.3% m/m
• Control group positive
• Broad-based gains across categories

Weak Report

• Negative or flat nominal growth
• Control group negative
• Concentrated weakness (e.g., just autos)

Red Flags

• Real (inflation-adjusted) sales declining
• Multiple consecutive weak months
• Weakness in discretionary categories

Pro Tips

• Focus on control group: Better GDP signal

• Adjust for inflation: Use real retail sales for true volume

• Watch revisions: Advance estimates often revised significantly

• Consider weather: Extreme weather distorts monthly data

Explore retail & consumer data →