Supply Chain & Logistics Data: Shipping, Freight & Inventory Indicators

Why Supply Chain Data Matters

Supply chains became front-page news in 2021-2022:

• Shipping bottlenecks
• Port congestion
• Chip shortages
• Inventory whiplash

Supply chain data now essential for:

• Inflation forecasting
• Manufacturing outlook
• Trade analysis
• Recession signals

Shipping & Freight Indices

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

IQ Score: 94

The most famous shipping indicator.

What it measures: Dry bulk shipping costs for:

• Iron ore
• Coal
• Grain
• Other commodities

Interpretation:

Why it's watched:

• No speculation (actual freight costs)
• Global trade proxy
• Chinese demand indicator

Container Shipping Rates

Freightos Baltic Index (FBX):

• Container shipping costs
• Multiple trade lanes
• Weekly frequency

Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI):

• China export rates
• Multiple destinations
• Weekly

Drewry World Container Index:

• Composite index
• Major routes

Trucking Data

Cass Freight Index:

• US trucking volumes
• Spending (rates × volume)
• Monthly, since 1990

American Trucking Associations (ATA):

• Tonnage index
• Monthly
• Industry benchmark

DAT Spot Rates:

• Real-time trucking rates
• Van, reefer, flatbed
• Lane-level detail

Port & Trade Activity

Port Throughput Data

Major US Ports:

• Los Angeles/Long Beach (largest)
• New York/New Jersey
• Savannah
• Seattle/Tacoma

Metrics:

• TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units)
• Vessel calls
• Dwell time (congestion indicator)

Congestion Indicators

Vessels at Anchor:

• Ships waiting to unload
• Peaked at 100+ in 2021
• Near zero = normal

Container Dwell Time:

• Days containers sit at port
• Longer = congestion

Air Freight

IATA Air Cargo:

• Global air freight volumes
• Cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK)
• Monthly

Significance: High-value, time-sensitive goods

Inventory Data

Census Bureau: Business Inventories

FRED Series: BUSINV | IQ Score: 95

Components:

• Manufacturing inventories
• Wholesale inventories
• Retail inventories

Inventory-to-Sales Ratio:

FRED Series: ISRATIO | IQ Score: 94

Key metric for inventory health:

ISM Inventories

From PMI surveys:

• Customer inventories (too low = orders coming)
• Own inventories

Retail Inventory-to-Sales

Sector-specific ratios by retailer type.

Supply Chain Surveys

ISM Manufacturing Components

• Supplier deliveries (longer = bottlenecks)
• Order backlogs
• Inventories
• Prices paid (input costs)

Regional Fed Surveys

Similar supply chain questions:

• NY Empire State
• Philly Fed
• Kansas City Fed
• Dallas Fed

PMI Delivery Times

Global PMIs include supplier delivery times.

Longer times = supply stress.

Semiconductor Data

WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics)

IQ Score: 92

• Global chip sales
• By region
• By product type
• Monthly

SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association)

US-focused data:

• Sales trends
• Trade data
• Capacity utilization

Chip Lead Times

Industry tracking of:

• Order-to-delivery times
• Normal: 12-14 weeks
• Shortage: 20-50+ weeks

Real-Time Indicators

AIS Ship Tracking

Automatic Identification System data:

• Vessel positions
• Port arrivals
• Trade route activity

Providers: MarineTraffic, VesselFinder, Kpler

Satellite Data

• Container movements
• Port activity
• Warehouse activity

Rail Traffic

AAR (Association of American Railroads):

• Carloads by commodity
• Intermodal (containers)
• Weekly data

Building a Supply Chain Dashboard

Weekly

• BDI (Baltic Dry)

• Container rates (FBX, SCFI)

• Rail traffic (AAR)

• Trucking rates (DAT spot)

Monthly

• Business inventories (Census)

• Port volumes (LA/LB, etc.)

• ISM delivery times

• Cass Freight Index

Real-Time Signals

• Vessel congestion (ports)

• Chip lead times

• Air freight volumes

Supply Chain Cycle Analysis

Early Recovery

• Inventories low
• Delivery times extending
• Freight rates rising
• Restocking begins

Mid Cycle

• Inventories rebuilding
• Delivery times normalizing
• Freight rates stable/high
• Demand steady

Late Cycle

• Inventories elevated
• Delivery times short
• Freight rates falling
• Destocking begins

Recession

• Excess inventories
• Easy supply
• Freight collapse
• Aggressive destocking

Pro Tips

• BDI isn't everything: Container rates matter more for finished goods

• Lead indicators: Shipping data leads trade data

• Inventories cycle: Watch I/S ratios for turns

• Regional variation: West Coast ≠ East Coast

• Seasonal patterns: Holiday shipping, harvest season

• New normal: Some structural shifts post-COVID

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